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The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research

Plans for Sustainable and Politically Acceptable Fiscal Consolidation and Social Insurance Reform from the Perspectives of Behavioral Economics and Political Science(-2024)

This research considers pathways to a sustainable fiscal and social security system in the post-COVID era. We will present multiple reform options and their anticipated social benefits and tax burdens, and then make recommendations to the government, local authorities, and the public. Because any proposed reform needs to have both “economic feasibility” and “political feasibility,” we will seek to offer economically rational fiscal consolidation plans that are based on robust evidence and logic while also striving for communication and dialogue with the voting public. Specifically, we will make long-term public finance and social security estimates based on data available from such government sources as the Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare; and Cabinet Office and offer scenarios according to growth rate and benefit level. The consumption tax rate will be a key measure for this purpose. At the same time, we will make estimates of benefits and tax levels according to different attributes, such as households with full-time homemakers, young-generation households, single-person households, and future-generation households. In making these estimates, certain assumptions will be made based on household surveys and current trends. Furthermore, our reform proposal will be applicable to both the central and local level governments through adjustments in the parameters.

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